Research on Incarceration and Public Safety

Two independent and rigorous research reviews both found that a 10% increase in incarceration lead to a 2% to 4% drop in crime rates and are widely cited on this point. The first is by William Spelman, Associate Professor of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, Austin. He published "What Recent Studies Do (and Don't) Tell Us about Imprisonment and Crime" in 2002 in Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, Vol 27. The second is by Steve Aos, the Associate Director of the Washington State Institute for Public Policy. His review was published in 2003.

The January, 2007, research review by the Vera Institute of Justice concluded that “analysts are nearly unanimous in their conclusion that continued growth in incarceration will prevent considerably fewer, if any, crimes than past increases did and will cost taxpayers substantially more to achieve.” On this point, see also the 2007 Pew study, "Public Safety, Public Spending."